Friday, July 8, 2016

Indian politics at crossroads

In the continued downfall of Congress, the vacuum that is getting created is sucking everyone in Indian politics. Congress at the moment looks so listless that it does not even know, how to react.?Any issue they get in their hand, they are letting it slip. It does not seems like their heart is in the politics. The sign of being old is very visible and there is no emphatic assertion by the next generation to show the zeal to lead. They do have the the most celebrated strategist in the form of PK, but a strategies can provide strategies. The key as always is the execution. Take for example Lalit Modi saga. They could have easily taken it to some strong conclusions in terms of damaging BJP reputation, but they let it wither. 

The vacuum that was created got filled royally by Modi and his team, especially a determined Shah. For a moment it looked the juggernaut of Modi will keep on rolling. The victories in various states, one after another made sure the Modi magic to continue. However Delhi and with AK, the wagon wheel stopped or rather it got crashed. And than Bihar happened. Assam though turned out to be a hope in the horizon. However a pattern emerged in this. The phenomena still being played in india is the diminishing of Congress. Wherever Congress is directly pitted with BJP and no third power, BJP is winning hands down. However wherever there is a third/regional force, BJP is still not successful. It did not happened in Delhi, Bihar, Bengal and Tamilnadu. The real test of BJP still is 2019, which will be truly a Modi election. 2014, I would still consider an election attributed to the downfall of Congress.  No points to be taken out from the effort of BJP to win the election as they presented them and are still projecting them the next alternative in Indian politics. The rubic cube in their way seems to be AAP and its unconventional politics.

It seems AAP has also realized that if they have to be successful at next level, than their competitor is BJP and not Congress. And the animosity between AAP and BJP is looking more personal also. AAP also seems to have realized that their best bet is to hit BJP and especially Modi as much as possible. Though BJP has also not been too good to them and it has been obvious with many incidents that has happened recently. Never in the Indian history, we have seen a quick Police and hyperactive CBI. Apparently CBI has put its all machinery in a case of some fifty crores, whereas so many multi million frauds are lying around to be handled. But as they say everything is fair in love, war and politics. On the downside for AAP, at times it looks like they cry more than what is warranted for that hit. But than again everything is fair in love, war and politics. 

For BJP, the biggest trouble are two state elections, UP and Goa. Punjab though all the survey are saying will go with AAP, however it will be more of a statement for Akalis than for BJP. However UP is crucial. This is the place which decided Modi in 2014 and may decide either way in 2019. Assembly elections will be an important indicator for it. If BJP looses it, it will be a big personal loss to Modi image, as he is a MP from here. The Goa elections are important from the perspective of establishing AAP as a true competitor to BJP, if they are able to dent BJP in a big way there. And this will help AAP to be bold enough to make inroads in Gujrat. Loosing Gujrat will be a suicide for BJP, as its the Gujrat model which has played the 2014 elections.

Politics is a battle of perception. Of course it has to be backed up with actual work, but what is important is the mental model that gets created in voters mind. 2019 BJP will also have to justify and clarify many things so they will have to really do something substantial, otherwise they run the danger of getting branded as only Bhartiya Jumla Party. Modi Shah duo also come from a primarily capitalist Gujrat and they are getting their first hand taste of socialist India. With UP election, we are going to be in election mode till 2019.  

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