It's a tough fight and has been made murkier in terms of number of prime minister aspirants we have got. Every top contender of the post is trying to make it me vs others as it draws the line more favourably for that particular candidate. If we look into opinion polls and other inclinations it seems like the game is inclined towards BJP or to say more specific, towards Modi. However history has shown that do not underestimate the dark horses like Arvind Kejriwal. In fact, there is a tinge of aggression in Rahul Gandhi from the past.
Who is going to win the election? That's a million dollar question and I am not going to hazard a guess and not to make any opinionated comment. I have my own inclinations but I would rather keep it to myself. What I would like to debate is how the play might unfold. In that context, there are two approaches that needs to be looked while building the big picture. One is top down approach and other is bottom up approach.
If we look at top down approach, looks like the bandwagon is led by Modi. He has been bogged down by his chequered past, which still haunts him to an extent. Though he has battled that with his development agenda. Then there is Arvind Kejriwal who is ruling the imagination of lot of people, both in good and bad ways. If someone stands in front of Modi at national level, then it's at the moment is Arvind Kejriwal. Arvind is making the fight more square with his direct attack on the development picture of Gujrat, which Modi and his bandwagon has projected as the core strength. Till now Modi has been ignoring Arvind completely and it's not sure how this will pan out. Then there are blocks of voter who have their sworn commitment to Rahul Gandhi. Congress is still one of the biggest political organization is the country, never forget that. Then comes Mayas, Jaya, Mamata, Mulayam, Naveen, Nitish.
However there is another perspective to look into things. It's about bottom up approach. It's about my local candidate. Till now India has grappled with the approach of choosing between the who is less worst? I am coming more from the perspective of candidates running for election with criminal background and with various corruption charges. Candidates might claim that the charges against them are politically motivated or the judiciary has still not convicted them. If the lower judiciary has convicted them, then they have got stay from higher judiciary. The other things that work for them is the amount of time it takes for cases to settle in India. The official position of the situation might be different but there are grapevines which keeps the truth circulating between masses. However that's where AAP is going to unsettle the equation. Many seats in India are fought with tacit understanding between competing parties. The veterans of all parties are usually given walkovers. It's a nexus of convenience. AAP is unsettling the equation in that front. They are fielding candidates with honest credentials and providing an alternative to people. It will put a dilemma in many voters’ minds. I might be an ardent fan of Modi or Rahul Gandhi but if I see three candidates of BJP, Congress and AAP. The AAP candidate comes with a background of long social development credentials or known for his work in certain issues related to human development, what I am going to do? The backlash on Arvind Kejriwal is making parties more comfortable that the politics of India has not changed. After success of AAP in Delhi, all parties were very cautious about candidates’ credentials. However the present backlash on Arvind is making them comfortable as now we are seeing all kind of characters being fielded by big parties, who has criminal and corruption background. Does the devil lies in the comfort that big parties are enjoying in current backlash on Arvind? Time will tell.