Saturday, April 12, 2014

Indian Political Climax - 2014

India is going to witness one of the most interesting election time post-independence. The oldies might say that the 1977 elections do come in that category, but for many of us, we are going to witness first-hand experience of a different kind of euphoria. This election are multipronged in many ways. Let's see, what the different situations that can arise after election are.
The first would be BJP aka NDA getting 272+. This is a no brainer. Modi will be the prime minister of India, as per the wish of many of the Modi supporters. With his knack of retaining power, as he has shown in Gujarat he might go for a long multiple innings run. We can debate that center politics is very different from State politics, but I would like to give him the benefit of doubt. The only spoiler for him could be corruption and at national level the level and sharpness of opposition is much shriller than in a comparatively traditionally rich and industrious state Gujarat. 272+ NDA seems to be the only viable option in current political scenario to provide a single party stable government.
 The second would be NDA getting restricted to around 200. At the moment, looking at all trends, it seems to be the most possible outcome. Here the situation becomes quite interesting and multiple scenario can be played out. One option is some smaller parties will support them to reach to 272+. Looks very difficult looking at the equation of strong small contenders with their stated position on Narendra Modi. The parties who have given positive vibes in some sense are AIADMK and Jagan Congress. The other reasonable block that might emerge is AAP but with their stated position that they are never going to give support to BJP, that is again ruled out. The other situation that can play out here is that more third parties may come out to support on the condition of BJP giving the prime-ministership to some other candidate, eg LK Advani. A third scenario is that BJP might be forced to rotate the PM position among several small groups. With more PM aspirants in India than parties, this though a remote possibility is quite possible.
 The third scenario is what has been played many times in the political history of India. Third front and other small parties tally their numbers to some reasonable level and Congress supports them. Looking at history of India, this seems to be the most probable outcome. The classic game of making the government to run for some time and then let them crumble under their own weight. Congress then will project itself again, as the only viable stable alternative in reelection. They may not get 272+ in reelection but they are politically more adept in making coalitions compared to BJP.
Where AAP stands on this? This is what makes the most of the equation interesting. With their stated position of putting 300 candidates, they are not going to cut 272+ by any stretch of imagination. They also lack the structure and organization at the moment for the size of a county like India. It's not that they are not capable of building it, it's just that they do not have enough time to do it. However they very well can upset many of the equation. If they can go for a kill with 50 seats it makes all equations unviable. No combination above will be able to reach to 272+ without them and they will not support anyone. Will they form the government like they did in Delhi. I doubt considering the experience they have got now. The other interesting thing to understand is why someone will give vote to AAP? For that we have to play both local and national phenomena simultaneously. When you reach to a poll booth you have stated your allegiance to one of the big parties be it Modi or Rahul or any other leader. But once you reach there you see a list of candidates. AAP has put a very strong candidate with clean image and the other parties still following the legacy. The moment of decision can lead you to anything.
So where we stand on all this? Quite interesting to watch.

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